The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced that a low-pressure area over the southwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal moved northeastwards and is now situated over the west-central and adjoining south Bay of Bengal. The IMD has issued a warning that a cyclone named ‘Remal’ is likely to form over the east-central Bay of Bengal by the morning of May 25.
According to the IMD, the cyclone will likely move northwards and reach near the coasts of Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal by the evening of May 26. It is expected to be a severe cyclonic storm with winds ranging from 100 to 120 kmph.
The IMD explained that the low-pressure area is very likely to move northeastwards and turn into a depression over the central parts of the Bay of Bengal by the morning of May 24. It will then likely intensify into a cyclonic storm by the morning of May 25.
Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, had earlier warned that a low-pressure system would develop in the south Bay of Bengal around May 22–23. He noted that sea surface temperatures in the south Bay of Bengal have been 2–3°C warmer than usual, which provides the necessary heat and moisture for cyclone formation. Additionally, the Madden Julian Oscillation, an eastward moving band of clouds, coupled with winds and warm ocean waters, is present in the area, providing a rotational trigger for cyclone formation.
However, Koll also mentioned that the quick northward progression of the monsoon could prevent the cyclone from forming vertically, potentially resulting in a monsoon depression that brings rain instead. If this happens, the low-pressure area may end up as a weak cyclone of short duration.
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