The recent split between the AIADMK and BJP has raised concerns about the BJP’s prospects in southern India. With the AIADMK withdrawing its support, the BJP’s chances of winning in Tamil Nadu seem uncertain. Since the passing of J Jayalalithaa in 2016, the AIADMK had been a valuable ally for the BJP. However, the decision to sever ties with the NDA on both national and state levels might prove disadvantageous for the BJP. The permanence of this split remains to be seen, but its potential consequences could hinder the BJP’s efforts to establish a stronghold in southern India.
The upcoming 2024 elections could be influenced by the future political landscape, potentially leading to a shift in power among Tamil Nadu parties and their alliances. This shift may result in the AIADMK losing the support of the Modi government, which has been a strong ally. Experts predict that the separation between the BJP and AIADMK will likely be temporary. Leaders from both parties have advised their members to refrain from making negative remarks about each other. The BJP is seeking to gain more support in the Southern region and hopes to secure additional seats through partnerships. Former AIADMK minister Munuswamy recently announced that his party is cutting ties with the BJP and NDA. He accused the BJP state chief, Annamalai, of intentionally damaging the reputation of respected party members, including former Chief Ministers CN Annadurai and Jayalalithaa. This decision could have significant implications for state and national politics. AIADMK is the only major partner of the BJP at the national level. Previously, the NDA included larger parties like Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, Telugu Desam, and AIADMK. However, now AIADMK remains the only party in the alliance. This loss is particularly significant for the BJP, as it has been unable to establish a substantial presence in Tamil Nadu, where power has alternated between the DMK and AIADMK since 1967. Out of their 50 years, AIADMK has ruled for 30. Tamil Nadu has two main political parties: AIADMK and DMK. AIADMK is a popular party with a large membership of two crore people, providing an alternative to the DMK. Both the DMK and AIADMK, the two main Dravidian parties, have supported the BJP at different times. For years, the BJP has faced challenges in winning over voters in Tamil Nadu. The Dravidian movement initiated by EV Ramaswamy Naicker has deeply embedded itself in the form of the DMK and AIADMK parties. In the last Lok Sabha elections, the BJP only secured 3% of the vote, while the two Dravidian parties had a solid 25% base. Since 2016, the AIADMK party has suffered continuous defeats in all elections. It lacks charismatic leaders like Jayalalithaa or founder MG Ramachandran, both of whom were matinee idols. In the most recent Assembly polls in 2021, the party’s performance declined, winning only 75 seats compared to the previous 136. The DMK-Congress coalition assumed power. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, AIADMK secured just one seat, a significant decrease from their previous 37 seats. Meanwhile, the DMK coalition’s seats increased from 0 to 39. Consequently, AIADMK members view their alliance with the BJP as a hindrance. The BJP’s attempt to win over voters in Tamil Nadu failed due to conflicting ideologies. The Dravidian parties are non-believers, while the BJP’s primary election strategy revolves around the Ram Temple in Ayodhya and Sanathan dharma. The upcoming Lok Sabha elections are crucial for the BJP, while the AIADMK is focusing on the 2026 Assembly polls. The outcome will heavily depend on the coalitions formed by the two Dravidian parties. Prime Minister Modi is determined to secure a third term in the 2024 elections. Insiders suggest that Annamalai’s behavior was not the primary reason for the split. Despite numerous complaints, the AIADMK is dissatisfied that the BJP has not taken action against Annamalai. There is a significant disagreement over seat sharing between the two parties. Both failed to win seats in Tamil Nadu in the 2019 elections due to a lack of shared ideology. Annamalai has proposed running independently in the election, and some BJP members are considering this idea. Annamalai aims to form a coalition with smaller parties. AIADMK chief Edapadi Palaniswamy has successfully united the party and worked with senior leaders to prevent the re-entry of Sasikala, TTV Dhinakaran, and former Chief Minister O. Pannerselvam. Even if the BJP offers them seats under its quota, Palaniswamy is determined to keep them out of the AIADMK and maintain full control. He fears that their entry would diminish his authority. The ruling DMK coalition is concerned about potential effects on their party and some suggest that Congress may ally with the AIADMK. The final outcome will depend on the number of seats each alliance is able to win.
The upcoming Lok Sabha elections hold immense significance for major political parties such as the DMK, AIADMK, Congress, and BJP. Among them, the BJP stands to gain or lose the most based on several crucial factors. Caste affiliations, financial resources, and political influence are expected to greatly influence the outcome of these elections.The BJP’s performance in the Five States Assembly polls will play a critical role in determining their success or failure. While the party currently holds an advantageous position, it is important to remember that in politics, circumstances can swiftly change. With six months remaining until the Lok Sabha elections, anything can happen.As the BJP eagerly strives to strengthen its foothold, it must navigate the intricate dynamics of caste, mobilize its financial resources effectively, and leverage its political influence to secure a favorable outcome. The BJP’s ability to address these factors and adapt to unforeseen events will ultimately determine their fate in the Lok Sabha elections.In essence, the upcoming Lok Sabha elections are a defining moment for the DMK, AIADMK, Congress, and BJP. However, it is the BJP that has the most to gain or lose. With the interplay of caste, financial resources, and political influence, the BJP’s performance in the Five States Assembly polls will be crucial. While the BJP currently holds an advantage, the ever-changing nature of politics leaves room for uncertainty. As the next six months unfold, the BJP must remain vigilant, adaptable, and focused to secure a favorable outcome in the Lok Sabha elections.
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